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Christian Seiler

Christian Seiler

Assistant Professor

School of Environmental Studies

School of Computing

Arts and Sciences

Research Interests

My research explores the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Earth system and how interactions among physical, chemical, and biological processes shape climate dynamics. My previous work has focused on understanding and improving the representation of the land surface and terrestrial carbon cycle in Earth system models, using numerical modelling, global Earth observations, and machine learning. Building on this foundation, my research is now expanding toward a broader exploration of Earth system dynamics, with a focus on how interactions and feedbacks among the carbon cycle, climate, and other components of the Earth system generate nonlinear behaviour, emergent phenomena, and potentially abrupt transitions. This work combines Earth system modelling with reduced-complexity dynamical models, dynamical systems theory, and computational and machine learning methods to better understand the mechanisms underlying climate variability, stability, and tipping points.

PhD Opportunities; click here for more information

Contact

PhD Students

Sharif Mahmood, PhD, School of Environmental Studies, 黑料吃瓜资源 (Supervisor, 2024 - present)

Florence Kayode, PhD, School of Environmental Studies, 黑料吃瓜资源 (Co-supervisor with Dr. David McLagan, 2023 - present)

Raj Deepak Suruli Nagarajan, PhD, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria (Co-supervisor with Dr. Adam Monahan, 2019-2025)

Master Students

Arianne Nantel, MSc, School of Computing, 黑料吃瓜资源 (Co-supervisor with Dr. Christian Muise, 2026-2028)

Sarah Gordon, MES, School of Environmental Studies, 黑料吃瓜资源 (Co-supervisor with Steven Moore, 2023-2024)

Isaac Dekker, MSc, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria (Co-supervisor with Dr. Adam Monahan, 2021)

Bachelor Students

Naomi Hagedorn, BSc, School of Environmental Studies, 黑料吃瓜资源 (2026-present)

Dex Ten Kate, BSc, School of Environmental Studies, 黑料吃瓜资源 (2026-present)

Charlie Bodger, BSc, School of Environmental Studies, 黑料吃瓜资源 (2025-2026)

Research Assistants and Co-op Students

Andrew Adams, Research Assistant, School of Computing, Queen's University (Supervisor 2024)

Jodhanveer Ghangheri, Co-op student (Supervisor, 2022)

Brianna Wolfe, Co-op student (Supervisor, 2021)

Postdoctoral Research Fellows

Dr. Yanping He, Postdoc, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria (Supervisor, 2018)

Dr. Dhouha Ouali, Postdoc, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria (Supervisor, 2017)

Dr. Norman Shippee, Postdoc, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria (Supervisor, 2016)

School of Environmental Studies, Queen's University:

  • 2026 ENSC 430B, Honours Project in Environmental Sustainability: Applied Climate Sciences
  • 2026 ENSC 841, Climate Change Science and Policy
  • 2025 ENSC 430A, Honours Project in Environmental Sustainability: Applied Climate Sciences
  • 2025 ENSC 480, Special Topics in Environmental Science: Land-Atmosphere Interactions
  • 2025 ENSC 841, Climate Change Science and Policy
  • 2025 ENSC 430B, Honours Project in Environmental Sustainability: Applied Climate Sciences
  • 2024 ENSC 430A, Honours Project in Environmental Sustainability: Applied Climate Sciences
  • 2024 ENSC 480, Special Topics in Environmental Science: Land-Atmosphere Interactions
  • 2024 ENSC 841, Climate Change Science and Policy, School of Environmental Studies, Queen's University,  
  • 2023 ENSC 480, Special Topics in Environmental Science: Land-Atmosphere Interactions

School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria:

  • 2021 EOS 491/562, GPHY 890, Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Advanced Topics in Earth and Ocean Sciences
  • 2018 EOS 433/550, The Climate System
  • 2016 EOS 491/562A, An Introduction to Climate Physics, Advanced Topics in Earth and Ocean Sciences

  • Ph.D. Earth System Science Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, 2009-2014
  • M.Sc. Earth System Science Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, 2006-2008
  • B.Sc. Faculty of Forest and Environment, University of Eberswalde, Germany, 2001-2003

  • 2024-present Assistant Professor, School of Computing, Queen's University (cross-appointment)
  • 2023-present Assistant Professor for Climate Change Science and Policy, School of Environmental Studies, Queen's University
  • 2018-2022 Research Scientist, Climate Processes Section, Science & Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Government of Canada
  • 2016-2018 Research Climatologist, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria (UVic)
  • 2013-2015 Postdoctoral Research Fellow, PCIC, UVic
  • 2004-2006; 2008-2009 Consultant for Friends of Nature Foundation, Bolivia

Seiler, C., 2026. Improving terrestrial carbon flux simulations with machine learning and global Earth observations. Earth System Dynamics, 17(3), pp.651-671.

Raoult, N., Douglas, N., MacBean, N., Kolassa, J., Quaife, T., Roberts, A.G., Fisher, R., Fer, I., Bacour, C., Dagon, K., Hawkins, L., et al, 2025. Parameter estimation in land surface models: Challenges and opportunities with data assimilation and machine learning. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(11), p.e2024MS004733.

Deepak, R.S., Seiler, C. and Monahan, A.H., 2026. Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Historical Carbon Sink across Biomes. Atmosphere-Ocean, 64(1), pp.1-25.

Deepak, R.S., Seiler, C. and Monahan, A.H., 2025. Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Future Land Carbon Sink. Atmosphere-Ocean, 63(5), pp.299-317.

SN, R.D., Seiler, C. and Monahan, A.H., 2024. A global sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty in the CLASSIC model. Atmosphere-Ocean, 62(5), pp.347-359.

Seiler, C., Kou鈥Giesbrecht, S., Arora, V.K. and Melton, J.R., 2024. The impact of climate forcing biases and the nitrogen cycle on land carbon balance projections. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16(1), p.e2023MS003749.

Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Arora, V.K., Seiler, C., Arneth, A., Falk, S., Jain, A.K., Joos, F., Kennedy, D., Knauer, J., Sitch, S. and O'Sullivan, M., 2023. Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Earth System Dynamics, 14(4), pp.767-795.

Curasi, S.R., Melton, J.R., Humphreys, E.R., Wang, L., Seiler, C., Cannon, A.J., Chan, E. and Qu, B., 2023. Evaluating the Performance of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) Tailored to the Pan鈥怌anadian Domain. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15(4), p.e2022MS003480.

Arora, V.K., Seiler, C., Wang, L. and Kou-Giesbrecht, S., 2022. Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations. Biogeosciences, 20, 1313鈥1355.

Seiler, C., Melton, J. R., Arora, V., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Arneth, A., Goll, D. S., Jain, A., Joetzjer, E., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Luyssaert, S., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Tian, H., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Yuan, W., and Zaehle, S. 2022. Are terrestrial biosphere models fit for simulating the global land carbon sink?. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, p.e2021MS002946. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002946

Gillett, N., Cannon, A., Malinina, E., Schnorbus, M., Anslow, F., Sun, Q., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Zwiers, F., Seiler, C., Zhang, X., Flato, G., Wan, H. Li, G. and Castellan, A. 2022. Human Influence on the 2021 British Columbia Floods. Weather and Climate Extremes, p.100441.

Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Merryfield, W.J., Boer, G.J., Kharin, V.V., Lee, W.S., Seiler, C. and Christian, J.R., 2021. Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5). Geoscientific Model Development, 14(11), pp.6863-6891.

Seiler, C., Melton, J. R., Arora, V. K., and Wang, L., 2021. CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) 鈥 Part 2: Global benchmarking, Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 2371鈥2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2371-2021.

Melton, J. R., Arora, V. K., Wisernig-Cojoc, E., Seiler, C., Fortier, M., Chan, E., & Teckentrup, L., 2020. CLASSIC v1. 0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) 鈥 Part 1: Model framework and site-level performance. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(6), 2825-2850.

Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B, 2019. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5. 0.3). Geoscientific Model Development, 12(11), 4823-4873.

Seiler, C., 2019. A Climatological Assessment of Intense Extratropical Cyclones from the Potential Vorticity Perspective. Journal of Climate, 32, 2369鈥2380, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0461.1

Seiler, C. , Zwiers FW, Hodges KI, Scinocca J, 2017. How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America鈥檚 Atlantic coast?. Climate Dynamics, 1-16.

Rezaee, S., Seiler, C. , Pelot, R., Ghasemi, A., 2016. Will commercial fishing be a safe occupation in future? A framework to quantify future fishing risks due to climate change scenarios. Weather and Climate Extremes 13 (2016): 73-85.

Seiler, C. , Zwiers, F.W., 2016. How well do CMIP5 climate models reproduce explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?. Climate Dynamics 46 (3-4), 1241鈥1256

Seiler, C. , Zwiers, F.W., 2016. How will climate change affect explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?. Climate Dynamics 46 (11), 3633鈥3644

Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., Kruijt, B., Hickler, T., 2015. The sensitivity of wet and dry tropical forests to climate change in Bolivia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 120 (3), 399鈥413

Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., Kruijt, B., Quispe, J., A帽ez, S., Arora, V.K., Melton, J.R., Hickler, T., and Kabat, P., 2014. Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119 (5), 758鈥775

Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., and Kabat, P., 2013. Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52 (6), 1303鈥1317

Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., and Kabat, P., 2013. Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52 (1), 130鈥146

Seiler, C. , Moene, A.F., 2011. Estimating Actual Evapotranspiration from Satellite and Meteorological Data in Central Bolivia. Earth Interactions, 15, 1鈥24