Don Drummond, Stauffer-Dunning Fellow and Adjunct Professor in the School of Policy Studies, has published a memo with the C.D. Howe Institute with co-author Parisa Mahboubi.
Drummond and Mahboubi argue that the latest official economic projections, being the 2025 Federal Budget and the January 2026 Monetary Policy Report, do not capture constraining factors to growth in Canada鈥檚 economic capacity. The lower immigration targets, weak productivity growth, and a downward trend in average hours worked will weigh heavily on future growth. Failing to represent these factors properly results in an overstatement of growth prospects, a misreading of the cyclical position of the economy, and incorrect signals for fiscal and monetary policy. Next week鈥檚 Spring Economic Update and April 2026 Monetary Policy Report will hopefully feature more realistic economic projections with appropriate policy responses.
This is the first in a series of four articles which will be released in late April 2026.