Professor Don Drummond recently posted a paper on the federal government spending and budget.
The federal government claims it is cutting spending, but even after the internal spending review, the ratio of program spending to GDP in 2030 would be the highest outside the pandemic years since 1994/95. Bringing the spending ratio back to the average from 2003/04 to 2019/20 would take $66 billion out of spending in 2030, perhaps going far enough to balance the budget.